Thursday, February 21, 2013

85th Academy Awards Predictions

Only three days away, the Oscars this year have proved the toughest in recent memory for all pundits and prognosticators alike.
Will Argo, the winner of all precursors, including DGA, SAG, PGA, WGA, BAFTA, and Golden Globe, continue its winning streak come Oscar night?

Best Picture
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Will win: Argo
Could win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Lincoln

(In order of preference: Lincoln - Django Unchained - Zero Dark Thirty - Life of Pi - Argo - Silver Linings Playbook - Amour - Beasts of the Southern Wild - Les Miserables)

My short take on Lincoln is here.

Best Director

Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Will win: Steven Spielberg
Could win: David O. Russell
Should win: Steven Spielberg

(In order of preference: Steven Spielberg - Ang Lee - Michael Haneke - David O. Russell - Benh Zeitlin)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence
Could win: Emmanuelle Riva
Should win: Jessica Chastain

(In order of preference: Jessica Chastain - Emmanuelle Riva - Jennifer Lawrence - Quvenzhane Wallis)
*note: I haven't seen The Impossible yet.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Could win: Nah.
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix

(In order of preference: Joaquin Phoenix - Daniel Day-Lewis - Bradley Cooper - Denzel Washington - Hugh Jackman)
My review of The Master is here.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones
Could win: Christoph Waltz
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman

(In order of preference: Philip Seymour Hoffman - Tommy Lee Jones - Christoph Waltz - Robert De Niro -Alan Arkin)
-- I honestly have no problem with anyone winning this. Oh wait. Except Alan Arkin. Sorry.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Will win: Anne Hathaway
Could win: Why would you bet against Hathaway?
Should win: Amy Adams

(In order of preference: Amy Adams - Helen Hunt - Sally Field - Anne Hathaway - Jacki Weaver)

Adapted Screenplay
Chris Terrio, Argo
Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
David Magee, Life of Pi
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Will win: Chris Terrio, Argo
Could win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Should win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln

(In order of preference: Lincoln - Life of Pi - Argo - Silver Linings Playbook - Beasts of the Southern Wild)

-- C'mon, AMPAS.

Original Screenplay

Michael Haneke, Amour
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
John Gatins, Flight
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Will win: Michael Haneke, Amour
Could win: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Should win: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

(In order of preference: Django Unchained - Moonrise Kingdom - Zero Dark Thirty - Flight - Amour)

Film Editing

William Goldenberg, Argo
Tim Squyres, Life of Pi
Michael Kahn, Lincoln
Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers, Silver Linings Playbook
Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg, Zero Dark Thirty

Will win: William Goldenberg, Argo
Should win: n/a

Seamus McGarvey, Anna Karenina
Robert Richardson, Django Unchained
Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln
Roger Deakins, Skyfall

Will win: Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi
Should win: Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln

--I'll keep bitching about the snub of Mihai Malaimare Jr. until we're done with the 85th Oscars.

Costume Design
Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina
Paco Delgado, Les Miserables
Joanna Johnston, Lincoln
Eiko Ishioka, Mirror Mirror
Colleen Atwood, Snow White and the Huntsman

Will win: Anna Karenina
Should win: n/a

--As someone who thinks Jacqueline Durran should have won last year for the sartorial marvel in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy... Oh wait. She wasn't even nominated then.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, and Martin Samuel, Hitchcock
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater, and Tami Lane, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell, Les Miserables

Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: n/a

Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi

Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Lincoln

Original Score
Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
Alexandre Desplat, Argo
Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
John Williams, Lincoln
Thomas Newman, Skyfall

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: n/a

Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Snow White and the Huntsman

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Life of Pi or Prometheus

Sound Editing
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

Will win: Argo
Should win: n/a

Sound Mixing
Les Miserables
Life of Pi

Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: n/a

Original Song

"Before My Time" from Chasing Ice
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted
"Pi's Lullaby" from Life of Pi
"Skyfall" from Skyfall
"Suddenly" from Les Miserables

Will win: Skyfall
Should win: Pi's Lullaby

Foreign Language Film
Amour (Austria)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)

Will win: Amour
Should win: n/a

Animated Feature Film

The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph

Will win: Wreck-It Ralph
Should win: n/a

Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should win: 5 Broken Cameras

Documentary Short

Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart

Will win: Mondays at Racine
Should win: n/a

Animated Short
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"

Will win: Head over Heels
Should win: n/a

Live Action Short
Buzkashi Boys
Death of a Shadow

Will win: Curfew
Should win: Death of a Shadow. Because I'm in love with Matthias Schoenaerts.

* # of wins

Argo -- 4 Oscars
Les Miserables -- 4 Oscars
Lincoln -- 3 Oscars
Life of Pi - 3 Oscars
Amour - 2 Oscars
Silver Linings Playbook -- 1 Oscar
Anna Karenina -- 1 Oscar
Skyfall - 1 Oscar

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