Friday, December 21, 2012

85th Oscars: Nomination Predictions (6)




What's new::

Now with a myriad of critics awards churning out their winners, and with Screen Actors Guild announcing its nominees, the race has gotten even more interesting, but at the same time seems to have solidified into a competition among a select few contenders.


The contenders that I view as almost sure-fire nominees are: Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Les Miserables, and Silver Linings Playbook. I'd have argued for Kathryn Bigelow's strong chances of claiming a second Oscar had Zero Dark Thirty been nominated for SAG Ensemble, but interestingly enough, it didn't get the crucial Ensemble nomination.


Among a few categories that I think pundits have more or less built consensus around are: best actor, supporting actor, and supporting actress. One that I consider most likely to produce surprises is best actress. We'll see. 


Now that we have Makeup & Hairstyling and Foreign Language Film finalists, I predict those categories accordingly.  


Lastly, based on the recent SAG announcements, I put Lincoln back on top, though Bigelow is still considered the front-runner in the directing category. 


And here are my 6th nomination predictions:


*Contenders I consider front-runners are marked in bolded blue

*Any changes that have been made are marked with 




Picture (in order of likelihood)

Picture           
Possible Nominations Tally
Critics (’12 Dec. 21)
Lincoln (DW)
 




12 noms: Picture, Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Score, Sound Mixing
RottenTomatoes: 91% (Ave. score: 8)
Metacritics: 86

My grade: 8/10


Zero Dark Thirty (SP)

9 noms. Picture, Director, Best Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing
RottenTomatoes: 95% (Ave. score 8.8)
Metacritics: 95

My grade:
Argo (WB)



10 noms. Picture, Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound Mixing
RottenTomatoes: 95% (Ave. score: 8.4)

Metacritics: 86

My grade: 7/10
Silver Linings Playbook (WC)


9 noms. Picture, Director, Best Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing
RottenTomatoes: 91% (Ave. score:8)
Metacritics: 81

My grade: 5/10
Les Miserables (UP)
14 noms. Picture, Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Original Song, Makeup & Hairstyling
RottenTomatoes: 72% (Ave. score: 7.2)


Metacritics: 61

My grade:
Life of Pi (Fox)

11 noms. Picture, Director, Best Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Visual Effects, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
RottenTomatoes: 87% (Ave. score 7.8)
Metacritics: 76

My grade: 7/10

Beasts of the Southern Wild (FSP)
8 noms. Picture, Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Score
RottenTomatoes: 86% (Ave. score 8.3)
Metacritics: 86

My grade: 6/10

Django Unchained (WC) 
12 noms. Picture, Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume, Makeup & Hairstyling, Score, Sound Mixing
RottenTomatoes: 93% (ave. score: 8)
Metacritics: 80 

My grade:


※ Potential Contenders

Picture           
N/A
Critics (’12 Dec. 21)
The Master (WC)

7 noms. Picture, Director, Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Original Screenplay
RottenTomatoes: 86% (Ave. score 8.1)
Metacritics: 86

My grade: 9/10
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (FSP) 

RottenTomatoes: 77% (Ave. score 6.5)
Metacritics: 62

My grade: 4/10

Amour (SPC)

RottenTomatoes: 93% (ave. score: 8.5)

Metacritics: 88 


My grade:
Flight (Para)

RottenTomatoes: 77% (Ave. score 7.1)
Metacritics: 76

My grade: 5/10
Skyfall (SP)

RottenTomatoes: 92% (Ave. score 8.2)
Metacritics: 81

My grade: 6/10
Moonrise Kingdom (FF)

RottenTomatoes: 94% (Ave. score 8.1)
Metacritics: 84

My grade: 6/10

The Avengers (WDP)

RottenTomatoes: 92% (Ave. score 8)
Metacritics: 69

My grade: 6/10


The Dark Knight Rises (WB)

RottenTomatoes: 87% (Ave. score 8)
Metacritics: 78

My grade: 6/10
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (WB)

RottenTomatoes: 75% (Ave. score: 7)
Metacritics: 62

My grade:
Looper (FD)

RottenTomatoes: 94% (Ave. score 8.1)

Metacritics: 84

My grade:




Director 

ZERO DARK THIRTY    
LINCOLN
ARGO

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
THE MASTER
Kathryn Bigelow
Steven Spielberg
Ben Affleck
David O.Russell
Paul Thomas Anderson

 Potential Contenders

Ang Lee (LIFE OF PI) 

Tom Hooper (LES MISERABLES)
Quentin Tarantino (DJANGO UNCHAINED)
Benh Zeitlin (BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD)
Robert Zemeckis (FLIGHT)


Best Actress

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
RUST AND BONE
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
THE IMPOSSIBLE
Jennifer Lawrence
Jessica Chastain
Marion Cotillard
Quvenzhane Wallis
Naomi Watts

 Potential Contenders

Helen Mirren (HITCHCOCK)
Keira Knightley (ANNA KARENINA)


Rachel Weisz (THE DEEP BLUE SEA)

Emmanuelle Riva (AMOUR)
Judi Dench (THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL)


Best Actor

LINCOLN  
SILVER 
LININGS PLAYBOOK
THE MASTER

FLIGHT
LES MISERABLES
Daniel Day-Lewis
Bradley Cooper
Joaquin Phoenix
Denzel Washington
Hugh Jackman

 Potential Contenders

John Hawkes (THE SESSIONS)

Jean-Louis Trintignant (AMOUR)
Anthony Hopkins (HITCHCOCK)
Ben Affleck (ARGO)
Jamie Foxx (DJANGO UNCHAINED)
Jack Black (BERNIE)



Best Supporting Actress

LES MISERABLES
LINCOLN
THE SESSIONS
THE MASTER
THE PAPERBOY
Ann Hathaway
Sally Field
Helen Hunt
Amy Adams
Nicole Kidman

 Potential Contenders

Maggie Smith (BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL)

Ann Dowd (COMPLIANCE)
Emily Blunt (LOOPER)
Samantha Barks (LES MISERABLES)
Helena Bonham Carter (LES MISERABLES)
Jacki Weaver (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK)
Shirley MacLaine (BERNIE)


Best Supporting Actor

LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
THE MASTER
DJANGO UNCHAINED
Argo
Tommy Lee Jones
Robert De Niro
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Leonardo DiCaprio
Alan Arkin

 Potential Contenders

Javier Bardem (SKYFALL) 

Christoph Waltz (DJANGO UNCHAINED) 
Matthew McConaughey (MAGIC MIKE)
Eddie Redmayne (LES MISERABLES) 
Bryan Cranston (ARGO)
David Strathairn (LINCOLN)
Ezra Miller (THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER)


Original Screenplay


ZERO DARK THIRTY

AMOUR
DJANGO UNCHAINED
THE MASTER
LOOPER

 Potential Contenders

FLIGHT

MOONRISE KINGDOM
MAGIC MIKE
PROMISED LAND
MIDDLE OF NOWHERE


Adapted Screenplay


LINCOLN

ARGO
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
LIFE OF PI
LES MISERABLES

 Potential Contenders


THE SESSIONS
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

THE PERKS OF BEING A WALL FLOWER
BERNIE
ANNA KARENINA
CLOUD ATLAS
HITCHCOCK


Editing


ZERO DARK THIRTY 

ARGO
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
LIFE OF PI  

 Potential Contenders

LES MISERABLES

CLOUD ATLAS
FLIGHT
DJANGO UNCHAINED
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD


Cinematography

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN
SKYFALL
THE MASTER
LES MISERABLES

 Potential Contenders


DJANGO UNCHAINED

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERNN WILD
ARGO
ANNA KARENINA
PROMETHEUS
MOONRISE KINGDOM


Production Design


LES MISERABLES 

LINCOLN
LIFE OF PI
MOONRISE KINGDOM
ANNA KARENINA 

 Potential Contenders


DJANGO UNCHAINED

PROMETHEUS
CLOUD ATLAS
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
THE  MASTER 



Costume Design

ANNA KARENINA

LES MISERABLES
MIRROR MIRROR
LINCOLN 
CLOUD ATLAS

 Potential Contenders


SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN

A ROYAL AFFAIR
DARK SHADOWS
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY



Makeup & Hairstyling 

THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY 

HITCHCOCK
LINCOLN

 Makeup & Hairstyling Finalists:


HITCHCOCK

THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
LES MISERABLES
LINCOLN
LOOPER
MEN IN BLACK 3
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN



Original Score 

LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
ANNA KARENINA 
THE MASTER 
ZERO DARK THIRTY 

 Potential Contenders

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
ARGO
CLOUD ATLAS
FLIGHT



Sound Editing

THE AVENGERS
ZERO DARK THIRTY
LIFE OF PI
LES MISERABLES
FLIGHT 

 Potential Contenders

ARGO
SKYFALL
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES



Sound Mixing 

THE AVENGERS
ZERO DARK THIRTY
LIFE OF PI
LES MISERABLES 
FLIGHT

 Potential Contenders

ARGO
THE DARK NIGHT RISES
SKYFALL


Visual Effects 

LIFE OF PI
PROMETHEUS
THE AVENGERS
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
SKYFALL


 Visual Effects Finalists

THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN

CLOUD ATLAS
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES
THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
JOHN CARTER
LIFE OF PI
MARVEL'S THE AVENGERS
PROMETHEUS
SKYFALL
SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN



new Foreign Language Film 

AMOUR
THE INTOUCHABLES
SISTER
BEYOND THE HILLS
A ROYAL AFFAIR


 Foreign Language Film Finalists

AMOUR (Austria)

WAR WITCH (Canada)
NO (Chile)
A ROYAL AFFAIR (Denmark)
THE INTOUCHABLES (France)
THE DEEP (Iceland)
KON-TIKI (Norway)
BEYOND THE HILLS (Romania)
SISTER (Switzerland)